Markets Brace for Trumpflation as Rate Cut Mirage Fades

1

Damien Hennessy, the Head of Asset Allocation at Zenith Investment Partners, highlights this change in sentiment as investors foresee potential inflation due to Trump's economic agenda coupled with record-high U.S. debt levels. Such dynamics could further intensify market volatility.

"Bond yields are climbing because the underlying U.S. economy has surpassed expectations, running into disinflationary headwinds seen in the last 12 to 18 months," Hennessy remarked. "This situation is now pressuring U.S. equity market valuations."

Reflecting on recent trends, back in September, low bond yields had investors bracing for a recession, with predictions for interest rates dropping to 2.8% by early 2026. Current expectations, however, have shifted towards a rate increase nearing 4%. The market has transitioned from forecasting up to nine cuts to possibly just one or two, signifying a significant turnaround.

Hennessy noted a rise in U.S. 10-year Treasury yields to 4.8%, impacting both the stock and bond markets. Concurrently, the U.S. dollar's rise has led to a depreciation of the Australian dollar to US62 cents.

"Market dynamics, driven by the anticipated rapid enactment of many of Trump's policies in 2025, hinge on sustained economic growth around 2.8%," explained Hennessy. "Yet, this optimism may face challenges as not all policies may be quickly executed as some expect."

With bond yields nearing 5%, Hennessy posits that bonds could offer substantial value for long-term investors, prompting a reconsideration of portfolio compositions to include bonds and duration. He added, "Until now, rising bond yields have been largely ignored by equity markets, but there comes a threshold where they begin to challenge equity valuations significantly."

The correlation between high bond yields and reduced risk premiums in equities necessitates confidence in continued earnings growth. Hennessy anticipates that the tension between bond yields and equity valuations will dominate market discussions throughout 2025.

Addressing the Australian market, Hennessy observed that local conditions remain challenging. "Valuations domestically are stretched, confronting Australian equities with a difficult environment. The sentiment may benefit slightly from a rate cut, but overall, the Australian share market faces considerable challenges."

The insights provided in this article are based on an analysis originally reported by Yasmine Raso on January 22, 2025.

Published:Wednesday, 22nd Jan 2025
Source: Paige Estritori

Share this news item:

Finance News

Markets Brace for Trumpflation as Rate Cut Mirage Fades 22 Jan 2025: Paige Estritori As Donald Trump embarks on his second presidential term, investors are shifting focus from a prolonged rate reduction period to what is being called 'Trumpflation'. This marks a notable shift towards anticipating inflationary pressures under Trump's pro-growth policies. - read more

RBA's Tug of War with Australia's Market Growth 21 Jan 2025: Paige Estritori As Australia's Reserve Bank grapples with economic challenges, its decisive interest rate hikes have led to a contraction in demand, achieving their intended result but with considerable impact on the private sector. - read more

Thousands of Australians Turning to Debt Help Services Amid Financial Crisis 17 Jan 2025: Paige Estritori A significant increase in the number of Australians reaching out for debt assistance is reshaping the financial landscape of the country. As the cost of living surges and interest rates climb, many individuals are finding it increasingly challenging to manage their finances. - read more

Consumer Confidence Takes a Hit Amid Economic Uncertainty 15 Jan 2025: Paige Estritori In a recent shift, consumer sentiment has experienced a noticeable decline as January brings a wave of pessimism about the economy. This change in mood among consumers could signal challenges ahead for various sectors, particularly in retail and discretionary spending. - read more

ASIC Unveils Updated Guidance to Strengthen Financial Advice Standards 14 Jan 2025: Paige Estritori The Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) has rolled out a fresh set of guidelines aimed at enhancing the quality of financial advice in the wake of significant legislative reforms. This move aligns with the recently enacted Treasury Laws Amendments (Delivering Better Financial Outcomes and Other Measures) Act 2024, which is designed to foster better financial outcomes for consumers. - read more

Adviser Qualifications Surge as 2026 Deadline Approaches 14 Jan 2025: Paige Estritori With the looming 2026 deadline for financial advisers to upgrade their qualifications, nearly 3,000 existing advisers in Australia are ramping up efforts to meet educational requirements. The industry is seeing a significant influx of postgraduate students aiming to secure their credentials by January 1st, 2026. - read more

Australian Dollar Decline: Economic Impacts and Opportunities 13 Jan 2025: Paige Estritori The Australian dollar has faced significant depreciation recently, sinking to its lowest level in nearly five years. This decline raises important questions about its implications not only for the economy but also for consumers and businesses alike. - read more