RBA's Tug of War with Australia's Market Growth

The information on this website is general in nature and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation, or needs. Consider seeking personal advice from a licensed adviser before acting on any information.

The private sector, a critical component of the nation's economy, has been particularly hard-hit. Industries such as construction and hospitality have seen a surge in insolvencies over the past two years, reflecting the broader struggle within this sector.

Job creation paints a stark picture of this downturn. Since the first quarter of 2023, only 91,433 jobs have emerged in the market-driven sectors, vastly outnumbered by the rise in the civilian population by 956,000 during the same period.

However, the larger economic narrative reveals a different trend. The overall demand across Australia remains relatively robust, primarily buoyed by the thriving non-market sector, which includes government activities and significant net overseas migration.

This divergence has been highlighted by Alex Joiner from IFM Investors, who notes that the non-market sector has generated 624,574 jobs since Q1 2023. This represents a striking 87% of the country's total job growth and is largely attributed to the expansion of initiatives like the National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS).

The dichotomy extends to GDP growth as well. Public sector spending is the primary driver of Australia's gross domestic product during this period, overshadowing the private sector's stagnation.

Independent economist Tarric Brooker describes the current situation as "burnout economics," where the Reserve Bank's efforts to cool the economy with elevated interest rates are met with increased public spending by government bodies.

Such significant public sector expansion is affecting productivity negatively. Australia's recent performance in labor productivity places it among the lower ranks compared to other advanced economies, raising concerns about long-term economic sustainability.

If evaluating the market sector alone, the RBA might have opted to lower interest rates; however, the overall economic picture necessitates a broader view. The non-market sector's unprecedented growth has counteracted the central bank's measures to temper demand and inflation.

The original analysis, sourced from the Australian Financial Review, fundamentally underscores the conflict between the RBA's intention to control inflation and the government's expansionary fiscal policies, which continue to bolster the non-market sector, leaving the private sector in a recessionary state.

Published:Tuesday, 21st Jan 2025
Source: Paige Estritori

Please Note: If this information affects you, seek advice from a licensed professional.

Share this news item:

Finance News

Clear

New Low-Interest Loans to Accelerate Electric Vehicle Adoption

21 Feb 2026: Paige Estritori

In a significant move to promote the adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) among Australian consumers, the federal government has announced a new loan scheme designed to make EVs more accessible and affordable. This initiative aims to reduce the financial barriers associated with purchasing electric cars, thereby encouraging a shift towards more sustainable transportation options. - read more

Decline in Australia's Used Car Market: Sales and Listings Down

21 Feb 2026: Paige Estritori

The Australian Automotive Dealer Association (AADA), in collaboration with AutoGrab, has released the November 2025 Automotive Insights Report (AIR), revealing a significant downturn in the used car market as the year concludes. - read more

New Partnership Aims to Reduce Electric Vehicle Costs for Australians

13 Feb 2026: Paige Estritori

In a significant move towards promoting sustainable transportation, the Clean Energy Finance Corporation (CEFC) has committed up to $60 million in partnership with Hyundai Capital Australia (HCAU) to make electric vehicles (EVs) more affordable for Australian consumers. - read more

Australians Embrace Hybrid Vehicles Amid Rising Environmental Awareness

13 Feb 2026: Paige Estritori

The Australian automotive market is witnessing a significant shift as consumers increasingly opt for hybrid vehicles, balancing practicality with environmental consciousness. Recent data from the Australian Automotive Dealer Association (AADA) and AutoGrab reveals that used hybrid car sales have more than doubled over the past two years, escalating from 6,868 units in October 2023 to 14,784 in October 2025. - read more

Australian Used Car Market Ends 2025 on a Softer Note

05 Feb 2026: Paige Estritori

The Australian Automotive Dealer Association (AADA), in collaboration with AutoGrab, has released the December 2025 Automotive Insights Report (AIR), revealing a significant downturn in the used car market as the year concluded. - read more

Plug-In Hybrid Vehicles Gain Momentum as Petrol Car Sales Decline in Australia

05 Feb 2026: Paige Estritori

The Australian automotive market is witnessing a significant shift in consumer preferences, with plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEVs) experiencing a remarkable surge in sales, while traditional petrol vehicle sales continue to decline. - read more

Macquarie Bank Transfers $1.5 Billion Car Loan Portfolio to Allied Credit

28 Jan 2026: Paige Estritori

In a significant move within the Australian financial sector, Macquarie Bank has agreed to sell a $1.5 billion portfolio of car loans to Allied Credit, a leading independent financier in Australia. This portfolio encompasses over 50,000 car loans and is slated for transfer by the fourth quarter of 2025. - read more

Click for more Finance News