Australia's Path Out of Recession: A Long Road Ahead

1

A significant contributor to this decline has been the household sector. By the second quarter of 2024, there was a notable 2.4% reduction in real per capita household consumption from its peak level.

Alarmingly, real per capita household disposable income experienced an even steeper drop, plunging by approximately 8%, as shown in national accounts data. This marks the largest recorded decrease in Australia’s history.

In its latest economic outlook, encapsulated in the Red Book for October, Westpac predicts a slow recovery process from this recession. They highlight the harsh fall in per capita disposable income, which their analysis pegs at a dramatic 10% drop.

According to Westpac, “The combined effect of rising income tax payments, higher interest and the surge in inflation has produced a 4.8% drop in aggregate terms since Sep 2021 and an eye-watering 10% plunge in per capita terms.”

Westpac draws a stark comparison to the early 1990s recession, stating, “That is about double the size of the decline seen during the recession in the early-1990s (when the average mortgage interest rate was 15% and the unemployment rate spiked 4ppts on its way to an eventual peak of over 11%).”

There is a slightly improving consumer mood, bolstered by tax cuts and other governmental aid, and an optimistic shift in expectations for interest rates. “The consumer mood has become considerably less bleak, buoyed on the one hand by the additional cash in hand as tax cuts and other support measures flow through, and on the other by turning expectations for interest rates.”

Commenting on consumer sentiment, Westpac notes, “The most striking sentiment shift over the last three months has again been around consumer expectations for interest rates. The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Mortgage Rate Expectations Index fell by a third between July and October.”

Despite these modest shifts in consumer sentiment, Westpac cautions that full economic recovery may proceed at a gradual pace. “The medium-term recovery process looks likely to be a slow one,” they warn.

Factors contributing to this sluggish recovery include a gentle easing cycle by the Reserve Bank of Australia, the slow rebound of household disposable incomes, and reduced use of savings reserves accrued during the COVID-19 pandemic. Additionally, deceleration in population growth poses another challenge.

Ultimately, Westpac concludes that despite some encouraging developments, the path to consumer recovery remains extensive. “Despite some more promising signs, the consumer recovery still has a long way to go.”

These insights and forecasts, grounded in Westpac’s research and national data, highlight the complex road to recovery facing Australia today, encouraging consumers and policymakers alike to brace for a protracted economic landscape.

Published:Friday, 1st Nov 2024
Source: Paige Estritori

Share this news item:

Finance News

Australia's Rising Tide of Public Spending: A Detriment to Economic Stability 02 Jan 2025: Paige Estritori The Australian economy faces pressing challenges as public spending continues to soar. Former Treasurer Peter Costello has voiced severe concerns regarding the fiscal policies of the Albanese administration, asserting that unchecked expenditures are exacerbating inflation and hampering economic growth. - read more

Aussie Households Choose Savings Over Spending Post Tax Cuts 31 Dec 2024: Paige Estritori Recent data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) indicates a noticeable shift in consumer behavior among Australians, as many have opted to save their newfound income from Stage 3 personal tax cuts instead of spending it. Despite the government’s strategy to stimulate the economy through tax reductions, real consumer spending has not surged as anticipated. - read more

IMF Advises Against Easing Australian Home Loan Regulations 31 Dec 2024: Paige Estritori A recent report from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has highlighted a critical economic topic in Australia: home loan accessibility for potential buyers. With the housing market becoming a focal point for upcoming elections, the IMF's findings challenge proposed changes by the ruling Coalition government aimed at relaxing borrowing standards. - read more

Retailers Hope for Rate Cuts as Boxing Day Sales Surge 24 Dec 2024: Paige Estritori This Boxing Day, Australians are expected to eagerly participate in post-Christmas sales, with estimates suggesting a spending spree of $1.3 billion. This anticipated figure represents a 1.8% increase compared to last year, despite ongoing economic challenges. The forecast, derived from a collaboration between the Australian Retailers Association (ARA) and Roy Morgan, showcases the resilience of retail in a pressured economic climate. - read more

ANZ Faces Shareholder Discontent Over Remuneration Amid Scandal 19 Dec 2024: Paige Estritori ANZ is grappling with a significant backlash from its shareholders following a bonus dispute linked to a recent bond trading controversy, marking an unprecedented strike against the bank's executive pay proposals. - read more

Mortgage Rates Climb: Australians Face a Holiday Financial Surprise 18 Dec 2024: Paige Estritori As the festive season approaches, Australian homeowners are facing unexpected challenges with increased mortgage repayments. Recent analyses highlight a notable shift in interest rates, impacting both fixed and variable loan agreements. - read more

Private Credit's Momentum Persists Amid Changing Rate Landscape 17 Dec 2024: Paige Estritori As interest rates begin their downward trend, one might assume that private credit investments would lose some of their appeal. However, the chief executive of Pengana Capital Group's dedicated private credit division remains optimistic about the sector's future due to ongoing investor enthusiasm. - read more