Australia's Path Out of Recession: A Long Road Ahead

1

The information on this website is general in nature and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation, or needs. Consider seeking personal advice from a licensed adviser before acting on any information.

A significant contributor to this decline has been the household sector. By the second quarter of 2024, there was a notable 2.4% reduction in real per capita household consumption from its peak level.

Alarmingly, real per capita household disposable income experienced an even steeper drop, plunging by approximately 8%, as shown in national accounts data. This marks the largest recorded decrease in Australia’s history.

In its latest economic outlook, encapsulated in the Red Book for October, Westpac predicts a slow recovery process from this recession. They highlight the harsh fall in per capita disposable income, which their analysis pegs at a dramatic 10% drop.

According to Westpac, “The combined effect of rising income tax payments, higher interest and the surge in inflation has produced a 4.8% drop in aggregate terms since Sep 2021 and an eye-watering 10% plunge in per capita terms.”

Westpac draws a stark comparison to the early 1990s recession, stating, “That is about double the size of the decline seen during the recession in the early-1990s (when the average mortgage interest rate was 15% and the unemployment rate spiked 4ppts on its way to an eventual peak of over 11%).”

There is a slightly improving consumer mood, bolstered by tax cuts and other governmental aid, and an optimistic shift in expectations for interest rates. “The consumer mood has become considerably less bleak, buoyed on the one hand by the additional cash in hand as tax cuts and other support measures flow through, and on the other by turning expectations for interest rates.”

Commenting on consumer sentiment, Westpac notes, “The most striking sentiment shift over the last three months has again been around consumer expectations for interest rates. The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Mortgage Rate Expectations Index fell by a third between July and October.”

Despite these modest shifts in consumer sentiment, Westpac cautions that full economic recovery may proceed at a gradual pace. “The medium-term recovery process looks likely to be a slow one,” they warn.

Factors contributing to this sluggish recovery include a gentle easing cycle by the Reserve Bank of Australia, the slow rebound of household disposable incomes, and reduced use of savings reserves accrued during the COVID-19 pandemic. Additionally, deceleration in population growth poses another challenge.

Ultimately, Westpac concludes that despite some encouraging developments, the path to consumer recovery remains extensive. “Despite some more promising signs, the consumer recovery still has a long way to go.”

These insights and forecasts, grounded in Westpac’s research and national data, highlight the complex road to recovery facing Australia today, encouraging consumers and policymakers alike to brace for a protracted economic landscape.

Published:Friday, 1st Nov 2024
Source: Paige Estritori

Please Note: If this information affects you, seek advice from a licensed professional.

Share this news item:

Finance News

Clear

ASIC's Findings Highlight Urgent Need for Reform in Car Finance Lending Practices

04 Jan 2026: Paige Estritori

The Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) has recently unveiled findings from its comprehensive review of the motor vehicle finance sector, highlighting concerning trends that are likely to prompt a tightening of lending practices across the industry. - read more

Affordable Electric Vehicles: New Low-Interest Loans for Eligible Australians

04 Jan 2026: Paige Estritori

The Australian government has launched a new initiative to make electric vehicles (EVs) more accessible to a broader segment of the population. This program offers low-interest loans to individuals earning less than $100,000 annually, as well as essential workers, facilitating the purchase of new and used EVs priced up to $55,000. - read more

Surge in Car Loan Delinquencies Sparks Financial Sector Worries

04 Jan 2026: Paige Estritori

Australia is witnessing a notable increase in car loan delinquencies, raising alarms about the potential ripple effects on the broader financial sector. This trend reflects the financial strain many Australians are experiencing amid economic challenges. - read more

ASIC Identifies Critical Issues in Australia's Car Finance Sector

19 Dec 2025: Paige Estritori

The Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) has recently conducted a comprehensive review of the motor vehicle finance sector, uncovering significant concerns regarding lending practices. This examination has highlighted issues such as exorbitant establishment fees and a troubling rate of early loan defaults, raising questions about the adequacy of current lending standards. - read more

Australian Used Car Market Experiences Significant Supply Surge

19 Dec 2025: Paige Estritori

The Australian Automotive Dealer Association (AADA), in collaboration with AutoGrab, has released the Mid-2025 Automotive Insights Report, revealing a substantial increase in the supply of used cars in the Australian market. The first half of 2025 saw 1,589,491 vehicles listed for sale, marking an over 30% rise compared to the same period in 2024. This surge in supply is reshaping market dynamics and influencing pricing trends. - read more

New Government Initiative Offers Low-Interest Loans for Electric Vehicles

19 Dec 2025: Paige Estritori

In a significant move to promote the adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) among Australian businesses, the government has announced a $50 million partnership with Metro Finance to provide low-interest loans for the purchase of EVs. This initiative is designed to support small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in transitioning to cleaner transportation options, thereby reducing emissions and energy costs. - read more

ASIC's Findings Highlight Urgent Need for Reform in Car Finance Lending Practices

11 Dec 2025: Paige Estritori

The Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) has recently unveiled findings from its comprehensive review of the motor vehicle finance sector, highlighting concerning trends that are likely to prompt a tightening of lending practices across the industry. - read more

Click for more Finance News