Retail Sector Braces for Tough Holiday Season

32

Over the last year and a half, the Australian retail sector has been navigating what might be described as a recession, mostly indicated by declining trade figures. This downturn presents significant obstacles for retailers as they head towards one of the busiest times of the year.

In a sobering analysis by Deloitte Access Economics, partner Dave Rumbens highlights that retail spending has consistently declined over six of the previous seven quarters. This decrease is compounded by high living costs, rising interest rates, and stagnant wage growth, leading to an overall grim economic outlook.

“We’ve seen retailers struggle significantly," said Rumbens. "Real retail turnover has dropped for eight consecutive quarters, and consumer spending has barely budged at a 1.3% increase over the past 12 months.”

Data reveals that the national real GDP growth up to March was just 1.1%, the lowest rate outside pandemic years since the 90s. According to Rumbens, this is a clear signal that Australia’s retail industry has been in a persistent recession for 18 months.

Despite the bleak outlook, this contraction in the retail sector is not surprising, given the weakening job market and the rising number of business insolvencies. “On a per capita basis, the reality is even harsher with real per capita retail spending shrinking by 2.5% compared to last year and further declining by 6.3% since June 2022,” explained Rumbens.

The "economic horror show" does not solely impact retailers; it reflects a broader economic malaise. With real consumer spending on retail down by 0.6% over the year to June, Rumbens predicts a difficult period ahead, though he remains hopeful that future years might bring some relief.

The Deloitte report underscores that new financial relief measures, including energy bill subsidies and tax cuts, might help increase disposable income and improve retail turnover. “While retailers should brace for continued challenges through the holiday season, we anticipate some gradual recovery," said Rumbens. Predictive figures show real retail turnover growth potentially rising from 0.3% in 2024 to 1.5% in both 2025 and 2026.

The recent monthly Consumer Price Index report for July shows inflation easing down to 3.5%, and underlying inflation dipping to 3.8%. Such signs might be initial indicators of economic stabilization, offering a glimmer of hope for Australian retailers.

Amidst this “new normal” of cautious and value-focused consumer behavior, the path to recovery might be slow, but not unattainable. Retailers who can adapt to the evolving economic landscape will be better positioned to overcome the tumultuous times still expected before a more stable future in 2025-26.

Published:Sunday, 1st Sep 2024
Source: Paige Estritori

Share this news item:

Finance News

Westpac Ends Cardless ATM Withdrawals: What This Means for Customers 11 Oct 2024: Paige Estritori Westpac Banking Corporation is making significant changes to its ATM services by eliminating the option for cardless cash withdrawals. This shift will require customers to carry a physical card to withdraw cash, starting at 8:00 PM AEST this Friday 11th October. - read more

Small Businesses in Australia: Navigating Turbulent Times 10 Oct 2024: Paige Estritori Amid the prevailing economic challenges, Australian small businesses are feeling the crunch as a wave of insolvencies underscores the depth of the issue. The construction and hospitality sectors are particularly vulnerable, with businesses seeking new strategies to stay afloat. - read more

Financial Worries Surge as Australians Face Economic Challenges 10 Oct 2024: Paige Estritori In a decade-long analysis, AMP’s recent Financial Wellness report uncovers a growing cloud of financial anxiety looming over Australian workers, with two-thirds expressing some level of financial distress. Particularly notable is the strain felt by those aged 55 to 59, where almost 40% report moderate to severe stress, highlighting growing concerns as retirement approaches. - read more

Australia Grapples with Prolonged Economic Slowdown 08 Oct 2024: Paige Estritori Australian citizens are currently navigating through an unprecedented economic phase, marked by the most prolonged recession per capita in the nation's history. This downturn has extended through six consecutive quarters of declining economic output, with a total of seven declines across the last eight quarters. - read more

Banks Under Fire for High Fees on Low-Income Accounts 07 Oct 2024: Paige Estritori A directive from Australian regulators is set to benefit nearly two million Australians, primarily from lower income groups, as major financial institutions were mandated to refund $28 million in excessive fees collected over the years. - read more

Calls Intensify for RBA to Reduce Rates and Rescue Retail 07 Oct 2024: Paige Estritori As the critical shopping season approaches, retail associations are urging the Reserve Bank to lower the cash rate in its upcoming November meeting. This call to action comes at a pivotal moment, with end-of-year festivities such as Black Friday and Christmas expected to significantly influence consumer spending. - read more

RBA Insights: The Dynamics Behind Rate Decisions 06 Oct 2024: Paige Estritori The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is set to release its September board meeting minutes, which promise to explain the rationale behind the decision to maintain interest rates at their current level. Market watchers are keenly awaiting any indications of future rate changes. - read more