Reserve Bank Anticipates Significant Rate Reduction

1

The information on this website is general in nature and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation, or needs. Consider seeking personal advice from a licensed adviser before acting on any information.

The proposed reduction would bring the rate to 4.25%, aligning closely with the neutral range of 3% to 4%, just prior to the extended summer hiatus. ASB Bank has remarked, “the case for another sizeable cut remains almost as strong as it was in October and is the least-regrets path at present.”

ASB highlights, “With inflation back around the target mid-point and spare capacity starting to build up, the amount of monetary restraint needs to be quickly pared back. A 50bp cut would achieve that.” These actions would ensure the official cash rate remains above the estimated 'neutral' level, granting room for adjustments in response to any unexpected inflationary pressures.

According to financial market predictions on Monday, an anticipatory adjustment of 96 basis points is forecasted through the November and February meetings, suggesting an additional likely 50 basis points reduction in February.

Despite the speculation, ASB maintains a projection of a more moderate 25 basis points cut in February, with subsequent decreases at following meetings. The bank asserts, “With the process of monetary policy normalisation largely complete, we expect a higher hurdle to OCR moves over 2025. The speed of future cuts is likely to slow back down over 2025.”

The prospect of ongoing reductions will rely heavily on upcoming financial insights and occurrences. ASB bankers anticipate that the Reserve Bank will signal this in its forthcoming communications. ASB stands by its forecast that, starting 2025, the Reserve Bank might initiate four consecutive 25 basis point deductions, eventually settling the rate at 3.25%.

This expected trajectory remains mostly in line with the 3% endpoint conveyed in preceding Monetary Policy Statements from the Reserve Bank. As noted by ASB, “However, it will be the evolution of the economy and inflation pressures relative to the Reserve Bank’s current expectations that dictates the pace, and we see risks in both directions.”

As sourced from previous reports, including those in reputable financial outlets, the key emphasis remains on responsiveness to future economic indicators and global financial conditions. With the Reserve Bank playing a critical role, the path of the official cash rate will be pivotal in steering New Zealand's economic course over the coming years.

Published:Tuesday, 3rd Dec 2024
Source: Paige Estritori

Please Note: If this information affects you, seek advice from a licensed professional.

Share this news item:

Finance News

Clear

ASIC's Findings Highlight Urgent Need for Reform in Car Finance Lending Practices

20 Jan 2026: Paige Estritori

The Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) has recently unveiled findings from its comprehensive review of the motor vehicle finance sector, highlighting concerning trends that are likely to prompt a tightening of lending practices across the industry. - read more

Affordable Electric Vehicles: New Low-Interest Loans for Eligible Australians

20 Jan 2026: Paige Estritori

The Australian government has launched a new initiative to make electric vehicles (EVs) more accessible to a broader segment of the population. This program offers low-interest loans to individuals earning less than $100,000 annually, as well as essential workers, facilitating the purchase of new and used EVs priced up to $55,000. - read more

Surge in Car Loan Delinquencies Sparks Financial Sector Worries

20 Jan 2026: Paige Estritori

Australia is witnessing a notable increase in car loan delinquencies, raising alarms about the potential ripple effects on the broader financial sector. This trend reflects the financial strain many Australians are experiencing amid economic challenges. - read more

ASIC's Findings Highlight Urgent Need for Reform in Car Finance Lending Practices

04 Jan 2026: Paige Estritori

The Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) has recently unveiled findings from its comprehensive review of the motor vehicle finance sector, highlighting concerning trends that are likely to prompt a tightening of lending practices across the industry. - read more

Affordable Electric Vehicles: New Low-Interest Loans for Eligible Australians

04 Jan 2026: Paige Estritori

The Australian government has launched a new initiative to make electric vehicles (EVs) more accessible to a broader segment of the population. This program offers low-interest loans to individuals earning less than $100,000 annually, as well as essential workers, facilitating the purchase of new and used EVs priced up to $55,000. - read more

Surge in Car Loan Delinquencies Sparks Financial Sector Worries

04 Jan 2026: Paige Estritori

Australia is witnessing a notable increase in car loan delinquencies, raising alarms about the potential ripple effects on the broader financial sector. This trend reflects the financial strain many Australians are experiencing amid economic challenges. - read more

ASIC Identifies Critical Issues in Australia's Car Finance Sector

19 Dec 2025: Paige Estritori

The Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) has recently conducted a comprehensive review of the motor vehicle finance sector, uncovering significant concerns regarding lending practices. This examination has highlighted issues such as exorbitant establishment fees and a troubling rate of early loan defaults, raising questions about the adequacy of current lending standards. - read more

Click for more Finance News