Reserve Bank Anticipates Significant Rate Reduction

1

The information on this website is general in nature and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation, or needs. Consider seeking personal advice from a licensed adviser before acting on any information.

The proposed reduction would bring the rate to 4.25%, aligning closely with the neutral range of 3% to 4%, just prior to the extended summer hiatus. ASB Bank has remarked, “the case for another sizeable cut remains almost as strong as it was in October and is the least-regrets path at present.”

ASB highlights, “With inflation back around the target mid-point and spare capacity starting to build up, the amount of monetary restraint needs to be quickly pared back. A 50bp cut would achieve that.” These actions would ensure the official cash rate remains above the estimated 'neutral' level, granting room for adjustments in response to any unexpected inflationary pressures.

According to financial market predictions on Monday, an anticipatory adjustment of 96 basis points is forecasted through the November and February meetings, suggesting an additional likely 50 basis points reduction in February.

Despite the speculation, ASB maintains a projection of a more moderate 25 basis points cut in February, with subsequent decreases at following meetings. The bank asserts, “With the process of monetary policy normalisation largely complete, we expect a higher hurdle to OCR moves over 2025. The speed of future cuts is likely to slow back down over 2025.”

The prospect of ongoing reductions will rely heavily on upcoming financial insights and occurrences. ASB bankers anticipate that the Reserve Bank will signal this in its forthcoming communications. ASB stands by its forecast that, starting 2025, the Reserve Bank might initiate four consecutive 25 basis point deductions, eventually settling the rate at 3.25%.

This expected trajectory remains mostly in line with the 3% endpoint conveyed in preceding Monetary Policy Statements from the Reserve Bank. As noted by ASB, “However, it will be the evolution of the economy and inflation pressures relative to the Reserve Bank’s current expectations that dictates the pace, and we see risks in both directions.”

As sourced from previous reports, including those in reputable financial outlets, the key emphasis remains on responsiveness to future economic indicators and global financial conditions. With the Reserve Bank playing a critical role, the path of the official cash rate will be pivotal in steering New Zealand's economic course over the coming years.

Published:Tuesday, 3rd Dec 2024
Source: Paige Estritori

Please Note: If this information affects you, seek advice from a licensed professional.

Share this news item:

Finance News

Clear

APRA's New Cap on High Debt-to-Income Home Loans: What Borrowers Need to Know

03 Dec 2025: Paige Estritori

The Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) has announced a significant policy change aimed at curbing potential risks in the housing market. Effective February 2026, APRA will implement a cap limiting the proportion of new home loans with high debt-to-income (DTI) ratios. This move is designed to promote responsible lending practices and ensure the stability of the financial system. - read more

ASIC's Findings Highlight Urgent Need for Reform in Car Finance Lending Practices

03 Dec 2025: Paige Estritori

The Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) has released preliminary insights from its comprehensive review of the motor vehicle finance sector, uncovering concerning trends that necessitate immediate attention from both lenders and consumers. - read more

AADA's Latest Report Signals Cooling Trends in Australia's Used Car Market

03 Dec 2025: Paige Estritori

The Australian Automotive Dealer Association (AADA), in collaboration with AutoGrab, has released the 2024 Year That Was Automotive Insights Report (AIR), providing a comprehensive analysis of the used car market's performance and offering projections for the year ahead. - read more

MONEYME's Strategic Move: $455 Million Boost for Autopay's Growth

25 Nov 2025: Paige Estritori

In a significant development within Australia's auto finance sector, non-bank lender MONEYME has successfully priced a $455.4 million asset-backed securitisation (ABS) for its secured car loan product, Autopay. This transaction marks the company's second major auto bond deal, following a $517.5 million transaction earlier in the financial year, underscoring MONEYME's rapid expansion and growing influence in the market. - read more

Anticipated Tightening of Car Loan Practices Following ASIC's Review

25 Nov 2025: Paige Estritori

The Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) has recently unveiled findings from its comprehensive review of the motor vehicle finance sector, highlighting concerning trends that are likely to prompt a tightening of lending practices across the industry. The review revealed that nearly half of all consumers who defaulted on their car finance repayments did so within the first six months of the loan term. - read more

ANZ Bank's $160 Million Fine Highlights Regulatory Compliance Failures

09 Nov 2025: Paige Estritori

In a landmark decision, ANZ Bank has agreed to pay a record-breaking A$240 million (approximately US$160 million) fine for a series of serious regulatory breaches. This penalty underscores the growing emphasis on compliance and accountability within Australia's financial sector. - read more

ASIC's Comprehensive Review of Australia's Motor Vehicle Finance Sector

01 Nov 2025: Paige Estritori

The Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) has commenced a thorough review of the motor vehicle finance sector, focusing on strengthening consumer protections and ensuring industry compliance with responsible lending obligations. This initiative aims to address potential risks and improve the experiences of borrowers across Australia. - read more

Click for more Finance News